In an interview with CNBC-TV18, El-Abd explained that Iran’s negotiating approach has been influenced by previous experiences where “their trust was exploited,” emphasizing the importance of restoring credibility for any progress. “We need to recognize that the Iranians have articulated from the onset that trust is pivotal in these discussions,” she remarked. Despite the tough rhetoric from Tehran, she noted that there are still indications Iran may come back to negotiations, though “it hinges on rebuilding trust.”
Her remarks come at a crucial moment, just one day before the two-week ceasefire concludes. US President Donald Trump has stated that an extension is “unlikely,” even while Washington seeks a resolution. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains a significant barrier, with Tehran viewing it as a violation of good faith.
Meera Shankar, a former Indian Ambassador to the US, highlighted that the blockade and the recent capture of an Iranian ship have exacerbated mistrust. “The Iranians clearly perceive the US blockade… as an act of bad faith,” she stated, noting that Tehran regards current US demands as “maximalist and unrealistic.”
El-Abd also pointed out the internal dynamics within Iran, mentioning that while civilian and military leaders seem united for the moment, rising tensions—particularly around the Strait of Hormuz—could shift power toward the military. “When distrust becomes tied to sovereignty… this is when the Iranian armed forces begin to assert more control,” she observed.
Despite these hurdles, both experts pointed out that pressures on Washington could drive negotiations forward. El-Abd mentioned the US is facing a legal constraint, as the ongoing military operation nears a 60-day limit that would necessitate Congressional approval for an extension. “There’s an understanding that the US currently needs a resolution more urgently,” she remarked, suggesting this situation provides Tehran with some leverage.
Shankar shared a similar perspective, highlighting that domestic political factors are also influencing US strategy. While Trump aims for a swift resolution, parts of his support base are skeptical about prolonged military involvement, even as he seeks a stronger outcome than past agreements.
On the ground, there is ongoing confusion regarding the status of discussions. Reports indicate a US delegation, led by JD Vance, is on its way to Islamabad, but Iranian state media has denied that any Tehran delegation is in transit. El-Abd noted that such last-minute uncertainty aligns with Iran’s negotiating tactics, where assertive public stances are often followed by late-stage negotiations.
The broader economic landscape remains vulnerable. The Strait of Hormuz blockade has led to a significant energy shock, with crude oil prices remaining above $90 per barrel. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, has warned of a potential energy crisis, while European officials anticipate increased supply pressures in the forthcoming months.
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Simultaneously, regional tensions are high. Israel persists with strikes in Lebanon despite the ceasefire, even as simultaneous diplomatic initiatives between Israel and Lebanon are in the works. El-Abd emphasized that these tracks are interconnected, with Iran advocating for a Lebanon ceasefire as part of the larger negotiation framework.
For the moment, both markets and policymakers are closely attentive. While the rhetoric remains severe and mistrust is deeply rooted, both experts propose that the urgency from all parties could still lead to a last-minute agreement.
