West Bengal Exit Polls: CNN-News18 Vote Vibe Forecasts BJP Leading with 143–163 Seats, TMC at 127–147 Seats

The CNN-News18–Vote Vibe exit poll indicates a narrow yet significant lead for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as the primary opponent in the West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026, predicting 143–163 seats in the 294-seat assembly. The governing All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Mamata Banerjee, follows closely with an estimated 127–147 seats, emphasizing a fiercely contested bipolar race in the state.

Despite the projected gap in seat count, the vote share is exceedingly close. The BJP is projected to capture 44% of the votes, just edging out the TMC at 43%, indicating that even minor shifts in voter preference could profoundly influence the final results when votes are counted on May 4.

Phase-wise forecasts reveal a divided verdict across different regions. During the second phase of polling, the TMC is anticipated to excel, gaining 76–86 seats, while the BJP is expected to follow with 55–65 seats. The Congress party is anticipated to secure no seats in this phase.
Conversely, the BJP seems to have created a robust lead in the first phase, where it is expected to obtain 88–98 seats compared to the TMC’s 51–61, with the Congress obtaining a minor 2–4 seats.

Other polling agencies present a more optimistic scenario for the BJP. Today’s Chanakya predicts a higher vote share of 48% (±3%) for the BJP, translating into 192 (±11) seats—well above the majority threshold. The TMC+ alliance is projected at 38% (±3%) with 100 (±11) seats, while other parties might collect 14% (±3%) of the vote and a minimal seat count.

Importantly, Axis My India refrained from conducting an exit poll in Bengal this time, citing low voter engagement.

“Around 60–70% of the voters were unresponsive. They were not even willing to confirm their choices,” stated Pradeep Gupta, Chairman and MD of the firm, underlining the difficulties in gauging voter sentiment.

ALSO READ | West Bengal exit polls 2026 forecast a suspenseful BJP-TMC showdown

Voting for all 294 constituencies occurred in two phases—April 23 and April 29—creating anticipation for a pivotal outcome.

In 2021, the TMC achieved a remarkable victory with 215 seats, while the BJP became the main opposition with 77 seats, a significant boost from its three-seat tally in 2016. The Left party received no seats, and the Congress managed only one.

Read more exit polls related news here