Seat projections estimate the UDF to secure between 70 and 80 seats, averaging around 75, which surpasses the majority requirement of 71 in the 140-member Assembly. Meanwhile, the LDF is forecasted to obtain 58 to 68 seats, and the NDA is estimated to achieve between 0 and 4 seats, suggesting minimal seat conversion.
| Alliance | Seat Range | Mid-Point |
|---|---|---|
| LDF | 58–68 | 63 |
| UDF | 70–80 | 75 |
| NDA | 0–4 | 2 |
The UDF is anticipated to secure a 42.6% vote share, outpacing the LDF’s 39.5%, with the gap falling within the margin of error of ±3%. The BJP-led NDA lags at 14.3%, while other parties comprise 3.6%.
While Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan continues to be the favored candidate, there are indications that voter sentiment is leaning towards change—creating a scenario where a tight race could determine the next governing body.
In terms of leadership preference, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan retains the lead with 31.8%, although signs of voter fatigue with incumbency are becoming apparent.
Congress leader V D Satheesan trails at 27.9%, establishing himself as the central figure for the UDF. Notably, 9.7% of respondents are undecided, while CPI(M) leader K K Shailaja has garnered 9.4%, demonstrating ongoing personal popularity.
Voting across all 140 Assembly constituencies in Kerala wrapped up in one phase on April 9, with the voter turnout reaching approximately 78%, exceeding participation levels from the previous election, as reported by the Election Commission of India.
Also Read: Kerala Exit Poll Results 2026 LIVE Updates: Initial projections indicate UDF leading, poised to win 28–32 seats
The high-stakes showdown in the state features a triad of contenders: the ruling Left Democratic Front led by the CPI(M), the opposition United Democratic Front helmed by the Congress, and the BJP-led NDA.
First Published: Apr 29, 2026 7:07 PM IST
