In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Kartikeya Batra, Assistant Professor at Azim Premji University, highlighted that the varying exit poll forecasts indicate a substantial shift in the political environment of the state. He remarked, “Tamil Nadu’s political scene is dynamic. May 4 will clarify if this marks a new beginning or a continuation of the past,” suggesting that Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) might challenge the entrenched rule of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).
The voting process has wrapped up across four states and one Union Territory, with counting slated for May 4. Initial exit polls offer a glimpse into the results, but Tamil Nadu’s outcomes are notable for their discrepancies. While three out of five polls indicate a majority for the DMK-led alliance, the News18 poll suggests the AIADMK bloc has the advantage. An unusual prediction by Axis My India indicates TVK may emerge as the largest party, with no alliance achieving a majority in the 234-seat Assembly.
Batra observed that TVK seems to be attracting younger, urban voters, along with those disillusioned with the two major Dravidian parties. “The pivotal question is whether TVK’s estimated 20–25% voter share has the potential for significant growth,” he stated, adding that even a solid performance below the victory threshold could position the party as a key influence in government formation.
Journalist Smita Gupta noted that Vijay’s campaign has gained momentum, setting him apart from previous film stars who found it challenging to convert their popularity into electoral triumphs. “Regardless of the final results, the crowds that Vijay drew throughout his campaign imply he stands a chance,” she remarked, emphasizing that the absence of a prominent figure in the AIADMK after J. Jayalalithaa’s passing has opened the door for new challengers.
Should the election outcome not yield a clear majority, post-poll collaborations could become essential. Gupta suggested that the Bharatiya Janata Party, allied with the AIADMK, might try to engage TVK in such a scenario to broaden its presence in the state.
In a broader context, exit polls indicate diverse outcomes across various states. Projections for Kerala suggest a narrow resurgence for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), reinforcing its dependence on southern states for political foothold. Meanwhile, Assam polls hint at a third consecutive victory for the BJP, with Batra attributing much of the credit to regional leader Himanta Biswa Sarma, whose influence continues to rise.
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However, uncertainty looms in West Bengal. Journalist Debjani Choubey advised caution in interpreting projections due to their fluctuating reliability in the state. “It is prudent to await the outcomes on May 4 rather than making hasty conclusions,” she stated. Some polls hint at a possible upset for Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, compounded by voters’ reticence in sharing their preferences, adding to the unpredictability.
For Tamil Nadu, the core question persists: Can Vijay’s TVK transform its momentum into seats? Even if it doesn’t attain government formation, its rise as a robust third force may significantly revise the state’s political dynamics, potentially putting an end to the long-standing binary and initiating a more competitive, coalition-oriented era.
