On the surface, the MPs asserted that their departure represented two-thirds of the party’s strength in the Rajya Sabha, potentially exempting them from the anti-defection law. Nevertheless, AAP is contemplating a legal challenge to this move, especially as one of the signatories is reportedly currently out of the country.
Additionally, there is a viewpoint that the AAP’s actual Parliamentary strength is 13 (10 in Rajya Sabha and 3 in Lok Sabha), meaning that nine MPs are needed to formally recognize a split and subsequent merger of the breaking faction. Beyond the technicalities, this occurrence has two significant implications for the party. First, it affects its presence in Parliament and the subsequent political ramifications at both national and state levels, particularly in Punjab, where AAP governs.
Impact on AAP
The immediate consequence is a considerable blow to AAP’s representation in the Rajya Sabha. As a result, the party will have reduced time for discussions, debates, and raising issues. Among the three remaining MPs, Sanjay Singh is anticipated to carry the majority of the workload compared to N D Gupta and Balbir Singh Seechewal. The party maintains three MPs in the Lok Sabha: Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer, Raj Kumar Chabbewal, and Malvinder Singh Kang.
It’s noteworthy that out of the four MPs who made their debut in the Lok Sabha for AAP, two have now left. Former diplomat-turned-politician Harinder Singh Khalsa recently aligned himself with the BJP, while Dharamvir Gandhi has become a Congress MP. This shakeup will significantly impact Punjab, as AAP has lost six representatives to its political rival, the BJP.
With Punjab elections approaching next year, Chief Minister Balwant Singh Mann must demonstrate that his government has fulfilled its commitments, maintaining its relevance in the border state. The party will miss Raghav Chadha, regarded as a key strategist and a strong ally to the CM.
Conversely, AAP’s primary challenge arises from the Congress party. The Shiromani Akali Dal is weaker compared to its past strength under veteran Parkash Singh Badal, while the BJP, which previously allied with the Akalis, struggles to make progress since their split.
At a national level, AAP’s approach to issues and opposition strategies will be influenced. Arvind Kejriwal’s hesitation to share Space with Congress will have limited repercussions. Having lost the ability to govern in Delhi, AAP’s main focus will now be to secure its stronghold in Punjab while seeking opportunities for expansion in other regions.
The rift between Chadha and the party became apparent over the past year, yet there was no evident attempt by the leadership to bridge the gap with this key player in whom AAP had invested. A similar indifference was shown towards Delhi MP Swati Maliwal, who has also joined the BJP. As for Ashok Mittal, a businessman with interests in education, he had recently been approached by the Enforcement Directorate shortly after being appointed as Chadha’s successor as Deputy Leader in the Rajya Sabha.
National perspective
Congress members, who have frequently labeled AAP as the BJP’s B team, can now point to the mass defection of AAP MPs as validation of their claims. This political friction could enhance the perception that AAP’s leadership is weakening. Kejriwal and others are currently embroiled in a legal battle following their discharge in the liquor scam case, and similar incidents involving the ED regarding AAP MPs bolster Congress’s narrative that the BJP uses government agencies to target political adversaries.
Currently, the BJP can find solace in an increase in its parliamentary presence. The party currently has 106 MPs, a number expected to rise to 113 following the formal acknowledgment of the new MPs. However, the BJP still falls short by 10 MPs for a simple majority, and the NDA is 18 seats short for a two-thirds majority in the House, where the combined coalition strength sits at 145.
—The author, K V Prasad, is a political observer and author. The views are personal.
