Holding 108 seats in the 234-member House, TVK still falls short of the majority mark of 118.
The deficit is currently 10 seats, which may extend to 11 if Vijay decides to vacate one of the two constituencies he has won—Tiruchirappalli East or Perambur—awaiting a bypoll.
Alliance arithmetic: Who could back TVK?
As reported by India Today, both the Indian National Congress and the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) are prepared to support TVK. With their assistance, the numbers could reach the significant 118-mark, sufficient for a simple majority.
There’s also a chance that the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) might lend its support. Its alignment with the Congress in Kerala could elevate the total to approximately 120 seats, or 119 if one seat is vacated, creating a more comfortable margin.
Let’s examine potential alliance scenarios:
- Scenario 1: TVK + Congress, VCK, IUML, CPI, CPI(M)
- Scenario 2: TVK + Congress, PMK, CPI, CPI(M), IUML
- Scenario 3: TVK + AIADMK (excluding BJP)
A partnership with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) might provide a more straightforward path to a majority, whereas a wider coalition with smaller parties and the Left could involve more intricate negotiations but potentially grant TVK more autonomy.
Can TVK go beyond alliances?
On paper, there are additional, more fragmented options.
TVK might aim to surpass the majority threshold without aligning with major parties like the AIADMK, DMK, BJP, or Congress by attracting support from smaller parties and independents.
However, this approach is anything but simple.
Any post-poll realignment is subject to India’s anti-defection law outlined in the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution.
This law disqualifies legislators who defect from their party unless:
- At least two-thirds of a party’s legislators consent to a merger, or
- The transition complies with allowed legal provisions.
This implies that individual MLAs—or small factions—cannot merely switch allegiances without risking disqualification.
Tamil Nadu has a history of sub-majority governments.
In 2006, M. Karunanidhi established a government with 96 seats, depending on external support.
