El Nino to bring warmer winter to northern U.S., NOAA says

NOAA released its U.S. Winter Outlook today. The outlook shows El Nino will likely influence the upcoming winter months from December 2026 to February 2027. Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across the northern United States. Wetter-than-average conditions are likely across the southern United States from California to Florida and along the Eastern Seaboard. Drought is forecast to improve for the majority of the country including areas in the East, Southern Great Plains and Southwest.

Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored for northern California, the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, much of the East, Alaska and for Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands. Near-normal temperatures are most likely for parts of the Southeast including Florida. Hawaii and much of the Southwest have equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal mean temperatures.

Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the southern tier from the Southwest to the Southeast and along the East Coast. Elevated odds for drier-than-average conditions exist for Hawaii, much of Alaska, the northern Mountain West, some areas in the Great Lakes and the western Pacific Islands. Areas in the Intermountain West, northern Plains, Ohio Valley and Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands have equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal total precipitation amounts.

Drought conditions are forecast to improve or end in the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast and parts of the East Coast. Drought conditions are favored to develop or worsen across parts of the northern Rockies along with northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington.

Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, said a very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous United States. This tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South. He said while higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. He said now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter.

The agency also implemented upgrades for the 2026-27 winter season. The National Weather Service Probabilistic Precipitation Portal is now operational. This platform enables users to view low-end, expected and high-end amounts of snow, ice and rain along with probabilities of precipitation exceeding specific thresholds. The National Weather Service will also implement the use of Particularly Dangerous Situation wording in select Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings this season. The next seasonal outlook update will be available November 19.