Experts are estimating loan growth at approximately 11% on a year-over-year basis, while deposit growth is projected around 8.5%. Sequentially, the Street expects loan growth of nearly 3.5%, although there is potential for a positive surprise. Overall system-level credit growth has been around 5% during this quarter, and ICICI Bank has historically outperformed industry trends, raising expectations for some outperformance this time as well.
Regarding earnings, net interest income (NII) is projected to increase by about 8.4% year-on-year, while pre-provision operating profit (PPoP) is expected to rise by approximately 6.4%. However, profit growth is likely to be subdued at roughly 5% year-on-year, mainly due to expectations of higher slippages during the quarter, predominantly from agricultural loans. Seasonally, slippages tend to spike in the first and third quarters, which may increase credit costs.
Net interest margins (NIMs) are anticipated to expand by around three to four basis points. Margin support is expected from CRR rate cuts as well as ongoing deposit mobilization and repricing throughout the banking sector.
In addition to the figures, management commentary will be closely monitored. The Street will seek insights from Managing Director and CEO Sandeep Bakshi, whose current tenure concludes in October 2026. Investors will also pay attention to guidance regarding growth momentum and margin sustainability.
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In summary, ICICI Bank is anticipated to report a stable set of results for the December quarter, with no major negative surprises expected.
Prior to the earnings announcement, ICICI Bank’s shares closed Friday’s trading session down 0.38% at ₹1,413 each. The Mumbai-based lender currently boasts a market capitalization of ₹10.05 lakh crore and has delivered returns of around 13% over the past year.
