The 11 hottest years ever recorded have all occurred since 2015, and the UN’s weather and climate agency predicts this trend will persist, with the likelihood of a new record high year before 2031.
There is a 75% probability that the five-year average temperature from 2026 to 2030 will exceed the critical threshold of 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average from 1850 to 1900, as reported by the World Meteorological Organization.
This outlook from the WMO coincides with a “heat dome” causing unusually high temperatures in western Europe, resulting in record-breaking heat for May in both Britain and France. “Global average temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels over the next five years,” the agency noted.
“There is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year recorded.”
El Niño effect on 2027
“An El Niño is anticipated toward the end of 2026, which boosts the likelihood that 2027 will be another record-breaking year,” stated Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the WMO’s Global Annual-to-Decadal Update.
The previous El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year recorded, with 2024 projected to be around 1.55°C above the pre-industrial average.
El Niño is a natural climatic event that raises surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, causing shifts in global wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns.
This phenomenon generally occurs every two to seven years and lasts approximately nine to twelve months.
1.3°C to 1.9°C range
The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to restrict global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a preference for keeping it below 1.5°C.
The targets are based on the 1850-1900 average, prior to the widespread burning of coal, oil, and gas, which release carbon dioxide—a primary greenhouse gas driving climate change.
“Annual global mean near-surface temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are expected to range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average,” noted the WMO update.
The WMO indicated a 91% chance that global average temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial baseline for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
Additionally, there is a 75% probability that the entire five-year mean from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average.
However, it’s deemed extremely unlikely—less than 1%—that any single year will surpass 2°C above the pre-industrial baseline within the next five years.
Arctic heat warning
The 1.5°C threshold is anticipated to be breached with increasing regularity.
The 1.5°C and 2°C limits in the Paris accords pertain to sustained long-term warming—usually over 20 years—meaning temporary breaches do not necessarily indicate the long-term goals are unattainable.
Last year was among the three warmest years on record, with the globally averaged near-surface temperature estimated to be over 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 baseline.
This report, generated by Britain’s Met Office national weather service and the WMO’s leading center for annual to decadal climate prediction, compiles forecasts from 13 different institutes.
The report forecasted that Arctic temperatures over the next five northern hemisphere winters (November to March) would be 2.8°C above the average for 1991-2020—more than three times the global temperature anomaly for that same period.
Predictions for precipitation from May to September between 2026 and 2030 expect wet anomalies in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia, alongside dry anomalies in the Amazon.
