The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has indicated an 80% chance of an El Niño event forming between June and August 2026, with probabilities remaining at or above 90% that it will continue until at least November.
Most forecasting models predict that this developing El Niño will be at least moderately strong, with the possibility of becoming a significant event, increasing the risks of droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a recurring climatic phenomenon characterized by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon influences rainfall, droughts, storms, and temperatures across regions like Asia, Africa, the Americas, and Australia.
Experts warn that El Niño may exacerbate the effects of climate change, raising the likelihood of extreme weather events globally. Francisco Aquino, head of the climate center at Brazil’s Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, stated, “When you have an El Niño layered on what climate change has already caused, the risks are immense.”
“El Niño conditions will intensify the challenges of a warming world. Impacts will be felt more intensely, travel further, and cross borders at an alarming pace,” remarked UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
When will its effects be experienced?
This climatic phenomenon generally begins to develop in spring and early summer, becoming more intense through autumn and reaching its peak between November and February. While some weather changes may be noticeable soon, the most intense impacts are expected from late 2026 into early 2027.
The WMO emphasizes the need for preparations as El Niño could elevate the chances of drought, heavy rainfall, and extreme heat in numerous areas. “We must prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – one that could intensify drought and heavy rainfall while increasing the likelihood of heatwaves on land and in the ocean,” stated WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
How could it impact travel?
Southeast Asia: Countries like Indonesia might first see drier and sunnier weather, which could attract tourists. However, extended dry spells may elevate the risk of forest fires and affect destinations across Indonesia, with smoke potentially impacting nearby countries like Malaysia and Singapore.
East Africa: Some regions of East Africa may experience increased rainfall later in the year. While this could lead to lush landscapes and enhance wildlife viewing opportunities, heavy rain might also result in flooding, muddy roads, and transport disruptions in remote safari areas.
Southern Africa: El Niño is typically linked with hotter and drier climates in parts of southern Africa. As wildlife congregates around dwindling water sources, prolonged drought may place additional strain on communities, water resources, and wildlife.
South America: Countries like Peru, Ecuador, and parts of South America might encounter unusually heavy rainfall and flooding. Such conditions may hinder transportation networks, outdoor tourism activities, and access to popular destinations.
Will all travel be impacted?
Not necessarily. Certain destinations could benefit from El Niño-related weather patterns. The Caribbean might experience a more tranquil hurricane season, and some regions could enjoy extended dry spells and sunshine.
Yet, favorable weather conditions could quickly turn disruptive as they escalate. Intense rainfall can trigger flooding and landslides, while prolonged dry periods can lead to drought, water shortages, and increased wildfire risks.
How El Niño could impact India
India has historically linked El Niño with weaker monsoon seasons and drought-like scenarios. A study reviewing over a century of weather data found that while not every El Niño leads to drought, most severe drought years in India coincided with El Niño events.
A weakened monsoon could pose difficulties for India’s agricultural sector, where a substantial portion of farming relies on rainfall. Even irrigated farms heavily depend on groundwater resources replenished by seasonal rains.
Reduced precipitation could adversely affect agricultural output and farmer incomes, while also exerting upward pressure on food prices, compounding inflationary concerns in a time of global uncertainty affecting commodity markets.
Moreover, monsoon rains are vital for water security, with a significant portion of India’s drinking water supply deriving from groundwater reserves. Diminished rainfall could therefore heighten stress on water resources in various regions. Travelers heading to India during the monsoon might encounter lower rainfall and elevated temperatures in some areas.
