The blockade followed unsuccessful discussions between Washington and Tehran in Islamabad. Arab officials informed The Wall Street Journal that Saudi Arabia has cautioned that Iran may retaliate by disrupting the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which is a crucial Red Sea maritime chokepoint utilized by vessels transporting Saudi crude via alternative export routes.
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Bab al-Mandeb is a slender maritime corridor that divides Yemen from the Horn of Africa. It connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean and is part of the shipping route extending towards the Suez Canal.
WSJ noted that Saudi Arabia has successfully returned its oil exports to nearly pre-war levels, averaging about seven million barrels per day. This recovery has been facilitated by redirecting crude through desert pipelines to Red Sea terminals rather than depending on the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen control portions of the coastal areas near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. According to Arab officials, Tehran is now urging the group to consider closing the vital shipping route once more following previous disruptions during Israel’s conflict in Gaza.
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“If Iran intends to shut down Bab al-Mandeb, the Houthis would be the clear ally to execute it, and their response to the Gaza conflict shows they have the capability to do so,” stated Adam Baron, a Yemen expert, in his remarks to WSJ.
The report further cited an Iranian news agency, suggesting that ongoing US actions may lead the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to reconsider limiting access to the Red Sea shipping lane.
Ali Akbar Velayati, an adviser to the Iranian Supreme Leader, also indicated on social media that Tehran views the Bab al-Mandeb Strait as strategically akin to the Strait of Hormuz.
“And if the White House contemplates repeating its foolish mistakes, it will soon realize that the flow of global energy and trade can be disrupted with a single signal,” he warned.
Concurrently, Houthi representatives have assured that Saudi vessels utilizing the Bab al-Mandeb route will not be targeted, as reported by Arab officials.
Nonetheless, they indicated that the situation remains precarious, as the Houthis might escalate their involvement if pressure from Iran increases. There is an added concern: Houthis, similar to Iran, might impose fees on commercial vessels if the situation deteriorates.
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