President Donald Trump, in a social media announcement following unfruitful peace talks in Islamabad, indicated that the US Navy “will begin the process of BLOCKADING any Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.”
The US military’s Central Command later clarified that the blockade would specifically target ships traveling to or from Iran, affecting all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. This will take effect on Monday at 10 a.m. in Washington (1400 GMT), according to CENTCOM.
Trump further stated that US forces would interdict vessels that have made toll payments to Iran, even if those ships are currently in international waters. “No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas,” Trump posted on Truth Social.
The primary aim, as Trump articulated, is to pressure Iran to cease its effective closure of the strait, a critical passage for about 20% of the world’s oil, to all countries except those securing safe passage from Tehran.
If Trump’s approach is successful, it could strip Iran of its key leverage in negotiations with the United States and reopen the Strait for global trade, potentially leading to lower oil prices. However, experts caution that a blockade constitutes an act of war and necessitates a long-term commitment of numerous warships.
“Trump seeks a swift resolution. The reality is that this mission is complex to execute independently and may not be sustainable in the medium to long-term,” stated Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official during the Biden administration, currently with The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
IRANIAN RETALIATION
The US military has yet to disclose essential details regarding the blockade, such as the number of US warships that will enforce it, the potential use of warplanes, or whether any Gulf allies will participate in the operation. Central Command has not responded to inquiries.
With a sufficient number of warships, the US Navy could establish a blockade that deters many commercial tankers from attempting to navigate through with Iranian oil, experts suggest.
But would the US be willing to board and seize—or even damage or sink—ships that breach the blockade? What if these vessels are carrying oil for major powers like China or for US allies such as India or South Korea?
And what might Iran’s response be? Retired Admiral Gary Roughead, former chief of US naval operations, warned that Iran could target ships in the Gulf or attack the infrastructure of Gulf states hosting US forces.
“I genuinely believe that if we proceed with this, Iran will react in some way,” Roughead stated.
Iran’s threats to shipping have caused global oil prices to surge by about 50% since the US and Israel initiated the conflict on February 28.
Trump remarked on Sunday that oil and gasoline prices might stay elevated in the United States through the midterm elections in November, which could result in Trump’s Republicans losing congressional control in case of a public backlash. The ongoing war has already faced significant unpopularity.
GAS PRICE PROBLEM
Frustrated with Iran’s unwillingness to compromise, Trump on Sunday also suggested the possibility of US strikes within Iran, pointing to missile factories as a potential target.
US Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the lead Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, questioned the overall strategy, highlighting that Iran could deploy speedboats to mine the strait or plant explosives on tankers.
“How will that contribute to lowering gas prices?” Warner inquired during an appearance on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”
Thousands of US military operations have significantly weakened Iran’s armed forces. However, analysts argue that Tehran has emerged as a persistent challenge for Washington, featuring a more hardline leadership and a concealed stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Trump warned on Sunday that “any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!”
In retaliation, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a statement declaring that military vessels approaching the strait would be viewed as a ceasefire violation and dealt with decisively, emphasizing the potential for dangerous escalation.
Stroul noted that the crisis will require a prolonged, international effort for resolution.
“In the long run, this situation needs to be tackled through diplomacy and international political will,” she concluded.
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