The State Department indicated that the decision to reduce staff in Iraq was “based on our latest analysis.” Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth authorized the departure of family members of US military personnel stationed throughout the region, according to a Pentagon announcement.
Neither statement referenced a specific threat; however, the New York Post quoted President Donald Trump expressing growing doubts about the chances for negotiations aimed at imposing new restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. In turn, Iran has warned of retaliation against US military assets in the Middle East should the talks fail and the Islamic Republic is attacked.
“I sincerely hope it won’t come to that and that the talks reach a resolution,” remarked Iran’s Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh in televised statements. “But if they don’t, and conflict is forced upon us, the other side will undoubtedly face greater losses. We will target all US bases in host countries without hesitation.”
West Texas Intermediate futures rose as much as 5.2% after Reuters reported that the US embassy was preparing for an ordered departure due to heightened security risks in the area. Iraq stands as the second-largest producer within OPEC.
Earlier in the day, the UK Navy issued an uncommon warning to mariners that escalating tensions in the Middle East could impact shipping routes, including through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping in the region has been fraught with risks, but UKMTO, which connects the navy with commercial shipping, seldom issues general warnings like this one.
“UKMTO has been made aware of increased tensions within the region which could lead to an escalation of military activity affecting mariners directly,” the advisory noted. “Vessels are advised to navigate the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Straits of Hormuz with caution.”
The Joint Maritime Information Center, a hub for sharing information under the Combined Maritime Forces, warned of elevated risks stemming from the discord, including potential missile use around key chokepoints.
Hormuz is regarded as the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, and Iran has frequently threatened to close it during periods of geopolitical strife, though it has never acted on these threats.
Hegseth’s directive concerns the families of service members stationed throughout the US Central Command’s area of operation, which covers most of the region, according to the statement.
“Centcom is closely coordinating with our Department of State counterparts, as well as our Allies and partners in the region, to maintain a constant state of readiness to support a variety of missions globally at any time,” the Pentagon stated.
Tehran has announced it is preparing a new proposal regarding its nuclear activities ahead of a sixth round of discussions in Muscat, the capital of Oman, on Sunday. This proposal “can be used as a basis for work,” Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi mentioned on Tuesday, hinting that Iran is contemplating a temporary arrangement that would serve as a framework while complex technical details are negotiated.
Trump has repeatedly stated his desire for an agreement that limits Iran’s nuclear activities, adding that the US may consider striking Iran if negotiations fail. Israel, believing a nuclear-armed Iran poses an existential threat, has indicated it could attack Tehran, whether or not with US assistance.
Iran has consistently denied intentions to develop a nuclear weapon.
