Trends show it won’t be easy for favorite

Leave it to two seasoned, Hall of Fame trainers with 15 combined Preakness Stakes victories to turn up the heat on a competitor a few days before the big race.

D. Wayne Lukas said to Michael McCarthy, “I think, Mike, it’s your race to lose.” Bob Baffert jokingly piled on, “Yeah, Mike, it’s your race to lose.”

McCarthy’s Journalism is the 8-5 morning line favorite to win the 150th rendition of the Preakness on Saturday after finishing a strong second to Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby. Sovereignty is not running after his team decided to skip it for extra rest and aim for the Belmont Stakes next month, a notable absence that makes the Derby runner-up the top choice in a field of nine.

“There’s some other very talented horses, but the horse to beat without a doubt is Journalism,” said Mark Casse, trainer of Preakness contender Sandman, who opened at 4-1 and is set to be ridden by accomplished jockey John Velazquez. “Everybody’s got to beat Journalism. It’s how everybody can rebound and come back in two weeks.”

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Journalism, Sandman and Lukas’ American Promise are the only Preakness horses who ran in the Derby two weeks ago. Sandman was seventh after struggling with mud getting kicked up into his face, and American Promise finished 16th after running into trouble early and late in the 19-horse race at Churchill Downs that is typically chaotic.

Baffert has won the middle leg of the Triple Crown a record eight times and would make it nine if Goal Oriented gets the job done from the inside No. 1 post. Lukas has seven victories in this race and can tie Baffert if American Promise helps him go back-to-back in the Preakness after winning last year with long shot Seize the Grey.

“He’s better this week than he was the week before the Derby,” the 89-year-old Lukas said of American Promise, a son of 2018 Triple Crown champion Justify, who was trained by Baffert. “Whether that helps us or not, I don’t know but we got no excuses in this barn. It might be when Journalism gets down with us. I don’t know. We’ll see.”

In his next breath, Lukas said, “I think Journalism is beatable.” How so?

“Well, we don’t know how he’s going to bounce back in two weeks,” Lukas said. “That’s the first thing, but it’s a different race. It’s nine [horses]. It means everybody will probably have a shot at him. It’s a different surface. Obviously it’s shorter. It may not fit him too well.”

The Preakness at 1 3/16 miles is slightly shorter than the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby, but there’s optimism about close-to-normal conditions after nearly a week’s worth of rain fell on Baltimore and mucked up the dirt track at Pimlico Race Course. After Journalism galloped through the mud earlier this week, McCarthy quipped of the surface, “I think everyone would hope it’s better by Saturday.”

Journalism did just fine in the slop in Louisville two weeks ago, and everything from his pedigree — he’s a son of 2007 Preakness winner Curlin — to his wins in major stakes races in California make him a worthy favorite.

“I have a lot of confidence in my horse,” McCarthy said. “He’s coming back in two weeks. Sometimes with good horses, it’s a lot harder to tell when they’re not on top of their game because they can handle it and they handle these things so easily. We’ll see on Saturday, but my gut tells me we’re in for good things.”