NOAA implements Rapid Refresh Forecast System on November 3
1 min readNOAA implemented the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) on November 3, according to the agency. The next-generation forecast system is operated by the National Weather Service (NWS). It replaces aging regional systems and advances NOAA toward a unified global-to-local forecast system.
RRFS delivers detailed, hourly-updating, short-term forecasts across all of North America, with longer forecast lead times than other models. Its domain includes Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. It also provides continuous predictions for coastal and offshore areas.
The system combines the hourly updates and 3-kilometer by 3-kilometer forecasts of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model with the larger continental domain of the North American Mesoscale model. For the contiguous United States, RRFS extends forecast lead time to 84 hours, compared with the HRRR’s 48 hours.
RRFS was designed to include the Rapid Refresh Ensemble Forecast System (REFS), which generates multiple weather simulations from RRFS data. REFS calculates probabilities for local-scale events, including severe hail and flash floods, for emergency managers, first responders and broadcasters.
NOAA Research and NWS scientists integrated fire weather, smoke and dust plume functions. A mode using an even finer 1.5-kilometer grid can be deployed on demand for smaller-scale phenomena, including fire weather, complex winter weather and severe thunderstorms. RRFS-SD, NOAA’s first high-resolution smoke and dust model to transition to NWS operations, predicts the movement of smoke and dust across North America over the next 18 to 84 hours. It also includes NOAA’s Hourly Wildfire Potential forecast for assessing the risk of rapid, intense wildfire spread.
As RRFS becomes operational, NOAA said it will discontinue the North American Mesoscale model, the Short Range Ensemble Forecast, the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast, the High Resolution Window and the NAM Model Output Statistics. NOAA said the change will unify and simplify regional models within the NWS operational modeling suite.
