NOAA forecasts El Niño effects on U.S. fisheries

NOAA Fisheries said El Niño could produce major changes in U.S. fisheries and marine ecosystems. NOAA announced in June 2026 that El Niño had formed in the tropical Pacific. As of October, forecasters predicted a greater than 83 percent chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. Experts expected it to persist through early spring 2027.

NOAA Fisheries is monitoring the event with uncrewed ocean vehicles, ocean and biological response forecasting models, and research with commercial and recreational fishermen. The agency said scientists cannot predict exactly what will occur, but observations and data from previous El Niño events can indicate likely impacts.

The West Coast was expected to experience the most direct effects. NOAA Fisheries anticipated shifting distributions for market squid and tuna, greater juvenile productivity for rockfish, and more tropical and pelagic species in recreational fisheries. It also expected increased observations of emaciated California sea lion pups and a potential increased risk of whale entanglement.

Southern California fishermen were already catching large numbers of wahoo, striped marlin and yellowfin tuna that are normally found off the coast of Mexico. Other warm-water species had been observed in California waters. NOAA Fisheries was tracking how marine species distributions may change along the West Coast.

Current forecasts indicated a significant impact on the Pacific Islands Region, although effects would vary by island area. NOAA Fisheries said American Samoa could experience stronger currents in known albacore fishing grounds and higher albacore longline catch rates. Effects on local catch rates in Hawaiʻi and the Marianas remained less certain and depended on species, fishing method and location.

NOAA Fisheries said protected species could face changes in food availability, feeding habitat and nesting conditions. Sea turtles could face hotter nesting beaches or nest flooding. Prolonged warming could cause corals to lose their symbiotic algae, leading to bleaching and possible mortality. NOAA also said warmer conditions in the Gulf of Alaska could change plankton species compositions and favor species with lower nutritional value.