USGS projects world production capacity for 8 critical minerals

The U.S. Geological Survey released projections of world production capacity for eight critical minerals through 2030 in its second World Minerals Outlook. The minerals are antimony, copper, graphite, niobium, potash, silicon, silver and tungsten. All are on the 2025 List of Critical Minerals.

The agency said the United States depends on imports for more than 50% of annual consumption of each mineral. Seven of the eight are used in both defense production and advanced technology. Silicon is used in chip production, while graphite is used in advanced batteries and energy storage. Potash is primarily used in fertilizer. China is a major exporter of antimony, graphite and tungsten.

The report said more than 70% of world supply of natural graphite, silicon and tungsten is concentrated in China. It also said 92% of niobium supply is concentrated in Brazil.

The outlook projects growth of 20% in global capacity to produce natural graphite and 18% in potash. Capacity is projected to increase by 6% for antimony, 9% for copper, 8% for niobium, 5% for silicon metal and 4% for silver. Tungsten production capacity is projected to increase by 10% or more. U.S. capacity to produce antimony, graphite and tungsten is expected to increase.

Antimony was mined in the United States for the first time since 2000. The United States imported 92 percent of potash used in 2025, largely from Canada. Tungsten has not been mined commercially in the United States since 2015, but Defense Production Act awards support new projects in Nevada and Canada. In 2025, the U.S. State Department launched the Pax Silica partnership with allies to increase silicon metal production and other silicon metal facilities.

The agency said its methodology considers announced, funded projects based on when they may come online. It subtracts operations nearing the end of their announced life or with depleted resources, accounts for idled capacity and uses actual production when operating or country capacity statistics are unavailable. USGS Director Ned Mamula said the outlook makes future mineral production trends available to federal agencies, industry and the public for policy and investment planning. The third World Minerals Outlook will be published in 2027.