Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of May 18, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Underdogs are 12-10 SU and 18-4 ATS in the last 22 of Nuggets-Thunder head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+8 at OKC)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 34-19 SU and 33-18-2 ATS (64.7%) in its last 53 games playing on 2 Days Rest
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8 vs. DEN)
* Not surprisingly, Unders are the wager of choice in second-round Game Sevens lately, 9-5 in the last 14 (64.3%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-OKC (o/u at 214)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s game as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
- Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
- Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
- Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
- Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
- Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
- Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
System Match (FADE): DENVER ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-OKC
NBA Second Round Playoffs Trends/Systems
Scoring Trends
- It was in the 2016-17 season that scoring really started to balloon in the NBA. Since then, it’s been proven that 112 points is the benchmark for second round success – Teams that score 112 points or more in a second round playoff game have gone 135-31 SU and 128-37-1 ATS (77.6%).
- Lack of success accompanies failing to reach the 103-point mark – Second round playoff teams scoring 102 points or less own a record of just 27-124 SU and 34-116-1 ATS (22.7%) over the last eight seasons.
Trends by Line/Total Range
- Laying big points with home teams has not worked out well for bettors in the second round recently, as hosts laying 8.5 points or more have gone 18-11 SU but just 8-21 ATS (27.6%) since 2016! This is in direct contrast to the first round numbers we saw a couple of weeks ago. All other home favorites are 71-52-1 ATS (57.7%) in that span.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8 vs. DEN)
Last Game Trends
- Teams coming off a loss in a second round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 32-17 ATS (65.3%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8 vs. DEN)
Trends by Game Number
- Favorites have been far from automatic lately in Game Sevens, going just 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS (33.3%) in their last 12 tries. Both Denver and New York lost outright as home favorites in this spot in 2024.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8 vs. DEN) - Winning Game Six has provided a good boost for Game Seven, as these teams riding the positive momentum have gone 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS (83.3%) in their last 12 chances.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+8 at OKC) - Not surprisingly, Unders are the wager of choice in Game Sevens lately, 9-5 in the last 14 (64.3%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-OKC (o/u at 214)
Trends by Seed Number
- After a long run of dominance prior, #1 seeds are just 54-45 SU and 45-53-1 ATS (45.9%) in their last 99 second round playoff games.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8 vs. DEN) - #1 seeds are on a 14-8 SU and 12-10 ATS (54.5%) at home in the last three seasons in the second round, turning around a trend that saw them go just 9-8 SU and 5-11-1 ATS (31.3%) prior.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8 vs. DEN) - Teams seeded #4 tend to be overmatched in the underdog role, owning a record of 17-39 SU and 24-30-1 ATS (44.4%) as such since 2015.
- The last 14 #4 seeds trying to fend off elimination in a second round series are just 6-10 SU and 7-9 ATS (43.8%).
Systems Match (FADE): DENVER (+8 at OKC)
Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination
- Strangely, in closeout games, teams looking to finish a series have been more successful against the spread on the road (12-10 ATS in the last 22) as compared to at home (9-15 ATS in the last 24).
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8 vs. DEN) - There is a certain level of pressure that comes with being a heavy favorite in a closeout game. Teams looking to finish a series and favored by 5.5 points or more are 20-10 SU but just 10-19-1 ATS (34.5%) since 2013 (8-8 SU in the last 16).
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8 vs. DEN)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons.
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 34-19 SU and 33-18-2 ATS (64.7%) in its last 53 games playing on 2 Days Rest
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8 vs. DEN)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five different betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 151-59 SU and 123-86-1 ATS (58.9%) run.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8 vs. DEN)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 103-65 SU and 99-66-3 ATS (60%) in that follow-up try over the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8 vs. DEN)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine different betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -8 (+2.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -8 (+0.8)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DEN-OKC OVER 214 (+1.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKLAHOMA CITY -8 (+2.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DEN-OKC OVER 214 (+5.3)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for today’s game:
Sunday, May 18, 2025
(521) OKLAHOMA CITY at (522) DENVER
* Underdogs are 12-10 SU and 18-4 ATS in the last 22 of the Nuggets-Thunder head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY DENVER ATS
