In the non-binding “straw poll,” conducted among the 15 Security Council members, Grynspan garnered 10 “encourage” votes, while Rodrigues-Birkett received nine, and Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN nuclear watchdog, earned seven votes, according to diplomats.
The candidates are aiming to replace Portugal’s Antonio Guterres, who is set to step down at the end of the year after completing two five-year terms.
The new secretary-general will need to revitalize an organization currently facing a crisis and diminishing influence, amid increasing calls for reform regarding what critics describe as a bloated and costly bureaucracy, as well as redundant functions across various agencies.
During the straw polling process, which is expected to have multiple rounds, Security Council members cast secret ballots to indicate whether they “encourage,” “discourage,” or have “no opinion” on the candidates.
According to diplomats, Grynspan, who is an economist with Jewish heritage — her parents fled Europe post-Holocaust — received one “discourage” vote and four “no opinion” votes. Rodrigues-Birkett had two “discourage” votes and four “no opinion” votes, while Grossi received two “discourage” votes and six “no opinion” votes.
In these initial rounds of straw polling, the same ballots are utilized, enabling diplomats to gauge overall support and opposition without disclosing which of the Council’s five permanent members (P5) — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States — may have cast negative votes, as their backing is crucial.
In later rounds, the five permanent members will use differently colored ballots that indicate if a candidate has received a “discourage” vote from any of them.
Other candidates include former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, former Ecuadorean Foreign Minister Maria Fernanda Espinosa, former Senegalese President Macky Sall, and Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu, who entered the race last week.
Bachelet received six “encourage,” five “discourage,” and four “no opinion” votes; Sall had six “encourage,” seven “discourage,” and two “no opinion” votes; Espinosa secured five “encourage,” two “discourage,” and eight “no opinion” votes; and Otunnu received two “encourage,” five “discourage,” and eight “no opinion” votes.
The U.S. ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, stated to reporters that the voting process was confidential and remarked: “We’ll let the process play out … We need a Secretary-General who is committed to reforming this institution, making it leaner, more fit for purpose, and more relevant on the global stage.”
MULTIPLE ROUNDS EXPECTED
Two diplomats mentioned that the poll provided positive indications for Grynspan — assuming her “discourage” vote did not originate from a P5 member — while another noted: “Birkett is the surprise here. If the two discourage votes are not from P5, she could enter the fray unexpectedly.”
Another diplomat indicated that the poll suggested “no consensus” on any particular candidate.
Historically, there has never been a secretary-general of Jewish descent, nor has there been a female secretary-general in the UN’s 80-year history.
Israel’s UN ambassador, Danny Danon, who has criticized Guterres for perceived bias against Israel, stated that the next secretary-general “must recognize that the United Nations was established to serve all Member States equally” and “confront the institutional antisemitism that has become ingrained within parts of the UN system.”
UN expert Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group expressed that the voting indicated the process of selecting a new UN chief “will not be swift.”
Historical trends suggest that multiple polling rounds may continue over the coming weeks and may conclude in late September or early October. The timeline could be extended if a consensus candidate does not emerge.
Additional candidates may still enter the race.
The Security Council will ultimately pass a resolution recommending an appointment to the 193-member UN General Assembly. This requires nine affirmative votes and no vetoes. Final approval by the General Assembly has typically been regarded as a formality.
