In a special interview with CNBC-TV18, Pereira stated, “We anticipate that AI will boost productivity by approximately 1.2% to 1.5% annually in the United States over the next decade, with somewhat lower impacts in various other nations.”
Characterizing AI as a “transformative technology,” Pereira noted its potential to redefine productivity, output, and workplace organization. The OECD has published a report detailing AI’s capacity to revolutionize numerous sectors.
Although AI adoption continues to rise, the United States is already surpassing most countries in productivity. Pereira mentioned that current productivity growth in the US ranges from 2.5% to 2.7% each year. “This is not solely attributable to AI,” he clarified, “but rather due to the reallocations seen during COVID.” He pointed out that the pandemic led to the loss and creation of over 22 million jobs, prompting many workers to join larger, more productive firms or to launch their own ventures, thereby boosting overall output.
He also highlighted that digital investments in the US are “much more significant than in most other countries,” contributing to the productivity uplift. Furthermore, post-COVID, there has been a surge in firm dynamism, with a rise in new business formations—another element bolstering productivity growth.
Consequently, the productivity gap between the US and other nations is expanding. With the US also at the forefront of AI adoption, Pereira indicated that this disparity is likely to grow. He stated that this trend will impact monetary, fiscal, and industrial policy. “AI will be the focal point in the near future,” Pereira remarked.
Watch the accompanying video for the full conversation.
