Fabian’s comments followed Iran’s decision to suspend discussions with the United States over Israel’s intensified military activities in Lebanon, complicating efforts to ease regional tensions.
In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Fabian noted that Trump is navigating a challenging situation as Iran seems capable of enduring a prolonged conflict.
“President Trump is in a tough spot. I believe he must seek a diplomatic resolution, as Iran has the capacity to sustain a war for weeks, if not months,” Fabian explained.
He also mentioned that domestic political factors in the US could restrict Trump’s choices, especially with key national events and the approaching midterm elections on the horizon.
“Are you suggesting that on the 4th of July, during celebrations for the 250th anniversary, Trump might receive body bags?” Fabian questioned.
Shortly after Iran terminated discussions, Trump told CNBC that he was not worried about Tehran’s decision. He further claimed that Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to reduce tensions and stated that he had requested Israel to pull back troops from Beirut.
This statement followed a reportedly strained phone call between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, where Trump expressed frustration over Israel’s military activities, cautioning that they were harming Israel’s international reputation.
Nevertheless, Netanyahu’s office later asserted that Israel would persist with its operations in Lebanon. Reports indicated that Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon caused over eight fatalities, while Netanyahu ordered the military to broaden its operations further into the country.
Dr. Deep Pal, Director of Geopolitics and Policy at Koan Advisory Group, told CNBC-TV18 that Trump had faced mounting pressure as the conflict extended.
“It has been evident for some time that President Trump feels cornered,” Pal stated.
He noted that the Trump administration has struggled to articulate its objectives in the conflict and previously claimed that Iranian capabilities had weakened, a statement that faced subsequent challenges.
Pal remarked that Iran still possesses significant leverage through its control over shipping movements in the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear program.
He added that Iran’s strategy was not merely about imposing tolls on shipping traffic but rather about demonstrating its operational command over a crucial global energy route.
“The crux of the matter is Iran signaling its control over the entry and exit of ships in the region,” he said.
Furthermore, he mentioned that Tehran seeks more robust assurances against potential attacks from Israel or the US.
“What they primarily seek is some form of assurance — a steadfast assurance, if you will — against being attacked,” Pal said.
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Fabian also raised doubts about whether any new nuclear agreement with Iran would mirror the 2015 deal made under former US President Barack Obama.
Meanwhile, Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, indicated that any future nuclear agreement with Iran would likely be markedly different from prior agreements due to Tehran’s advancements in nuclear technology and expertise.
