US-Iran Negotiations Advance, Yet Agreement Remains Elusive: Expert Insights

US and Iran mulling over another round of negotiations this week, location still undecided: Report
Discussions between the United States and Iran have advanced somewhat, yet a conclusive agreement is still quite far off, according to Kamran Bokhari, Senior Resident Fellow at the Middle East Policy Council, who advised caution against jumping to conclusions from the most recent talks.

“There was a dialogue last week, and it was constructive, but it fell short of completion,” Bokhari told CNBC-TV18, emphasizing that “this indicates progress, but I don’t think we should assume we are close to a deal.”

His remarks come during a period of heightened diplomatic efforts surrounding the conflict. US President Donald Trump has signaled that another round of discussions between Washington and Tehran might occur in Pakistan shortly, while also indicating separately that the confrontation with Iran could be nearing its conclusion. Iran has acknowledged that a senior delegation from Pakistan is expected in Tehran to follow up on previous talks held in Islamabad.
Despite these developments, several critical issues remain unresolved. Bokhari pointed out that the US has proposed a significant economic package in exchange for Iran halting its uranium enrichment program, a suggestion that requires consensus among the Iranian leadership. “It’s a complex matter that still needs to be worked out. Thus, I’m hesitant to assert that we are nearing the finish line,” he stated.

He further noted that concurrent diplomatic efforts, including the recent Lebanon-Israel discussions, are closely intertwined with the broader US-Iran negotiations. A primary demand from Washington is that Tehran withdraw its support for regional armed factions, particularly Hezbollah. Bokhari suggested that Iran is unlikely to completely renounce the group, even if it agrees to scale back its military involvement, as it aims to maintain Hezbollah as a political entity in Lebanon.

Pakistan’s role as a mediator has gained greater importance, with Bokhari describing it as “uniquely positioned” due to its relationships with various stakeholders, including the US, China, and Saudi Arabia, in addition to its relatively stable ties with Iran. He highlighted that Islamabad has a vested interest in preventing further escalation, given the security issues along its western border and the risk of broader regional instability.

On the ground, tensions remain high. The US blockade of Iranian ports persists following the latest talks, which ended without a breakthrough, while the US Central Command has reported achieving maritime dominance in the Gulf. In a recent social media update, Trump announced that the US would keep the Strait of Hormuz open for global trade indefinitely and claimed that China had consented to cease weapons shipments to Iran.

Concurrently, European leaders are making preparations for the post-conflict era. French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer are scheduled to co-host a virtual summit aimed at outlining strategies to secure shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz once hostilities subside.

CNBCTV18

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Bokhari remarked that the overall regional dynamics have shifted considerably following recent conflicts, including Iranian missile and drone attacks throughout the Gulf. “The unthinkable has occurred,” he stated, cautioning that uncertainties surrounding critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz could result in long-lasting alterations in the operations of Gulf economies and impact expatriate communities, especially those from South Asia.

While US Vice President JD Vance has claimed that negotiations are being carried out in good faith, Bokhari emphasized that the speed of progress hinges on how both parties address their fundamental strategic demands, with the results likely affecting the region’s economic and security landscape for years to come.

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