Deep Pal, Director of Geopolitics & Policy at Koan Advisory Group, noted that while both nations have arrived at the negotiating table, their respective demands are still widely divergent, making a swift resolution improbable.
He stressed that in addition to formal requests, three significant factors will influence the negotiations — domestic political influences, governance of the Strait of Hormuz, and the outlook of global energy supplies.
He pointed out that both parties will feel the need to demonstrate achievements domestically, especially with elections approaching in the US and ongoing economic struggles in Iran. Furthermore, the governance of shipping routes and energy pricing remains crucial, considering the upheaval in global oil and gas markets.
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Sanjay Pulipaka, Chairperson of the Politeia Research Foundation, indicated that the negotiations are especially challenging since neither side can claim a decisive victory. “There is no clear victor… therefore, the negotiations will be quite difficult,” he mentioned.
Pulipaka elaborated that both parties enter the talks with distinct advantages — the US boasts military and strategic benefits, while Iran emphasizes its survival and control over critical junctures like the Strait of Hormuz. This dynamic complicates the pursuit of compromise.
He also underscored that while the discussions seem bilateral, they involve multiple layers. The US must take into account allies such as Israel and Gulf nations, while Iran has its regional partners, further complicating the negotiation process.
Another crucial aspect, according to Pulipaka, is the management of perceptions. Iran has actively influenced global perceptions through symbolic messaging and by directing attention to issues like shipping route control, thereby strengthening its bargaining position.
Hamid Almashriqi Khan, speaking from Pakistan, characterized the discussions as a pivotal diplomatic event, with Islamabad positioning itself as a vital mediator. He stated that both parties now acknowledge the costs of conflict and the necessity for dialogue. “They both have endured the war… and have come to realize that warfare is not the solution,” he remarked.
Khan further added that while hopes are high, the discussions are unlikely to yield immediate outcomes and could require weeks to finalize. He anticipates some flexibility from Iran concerning nuclear matters, but not regarding its missile capabilities, which it considers an essential deterrent.
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