Despite limited public outcomes from discussions aimed at ending Europe’s longest-lasting war since World War II, Kyrylo Budanov expressed hope that negotiations are moving toward a compromise. Ukraine’s former top military intelligence officer asserted that Russia is also keen to conclude the conflict.
“They all recognize that the war must come to an end, which is why negotiations are ongoing,” Budanov stated in an April 4 interview with Bloomberg. “I believe it won’t take long.”
Budanov gained recognition for orchestrating and sometimes leading audacious offensives against Russian forces while serving as head of Ukraine’s military intelligence from 2020 until January of this year, when President Volodymyr Zelenskiy appointed him as head of his presidential office. He is a vital member of Ukraine’s negotiating team in tripartite discussions with the US and Russia aimed at concluding the five-year conflict.
He also plays a crucial role in managing prisoner exchanges with Russia, bringing hundreds of Ukrainians back from detention. Though he has transitioned to civilian administration, Budanov retains his military rank of lieutenant general, affording him a unique viewpoint on Ukraine’s political and military dilemmas.
Also Read: Iran US War Live Updates
Ukrainian dollar bonds saw a continued rally, marking the highest gains in emerging markets on Friday. The country’s debt maturing in 2034 appreciated nearly 4 cents on the dollar to approximately 62 cents, its peak in a month.
German bonds reduced their declines, resulting in 10-year yields rising three basis points to 3.02%, following Budanov’s remarks. Money markets also adjusted their expectations for European Central Bank interest rate hikes, anticipating two to three quarter-point increases this year. The euro rebounded, reaching a daily high of $1.1711.
“Clearly, the resolution of the war in Ukraine would serve as a positive influence for the euro, and confirming the end of the conflict would bolster the common currency,” remarked Roberto Cobo Garcia, head of G-10 FX strategy at BBVA in Madrid.
Although Budanov acknowledged that both parties have upheld “maximalist” stances in the US-mediated discussions thus far, he remains confident that they will converge in pursuit of a compromise.
Russia has strong motivation to finalize an agreement, he noted. “Unlike us, they are spending their own resources,” Budanov remarked. “These amounts are enormous — already in the trillions.”
However, he refrained from detailing what a potential agreement might entail regarding territory, the most contentious topic in negotiations.
Also Read: Trump says Iran doing ‘very poor job’ of allowing oil through Strait of Hormuz
“No definitive decisions have been reached as of yet,” he stated. “Nevertheless, everyone now clearly understands the boundaries of what is negotiable. That’s significant progress.”
Budanov stood out among Ukrainians in the early stages of the full-scale invasion for his remarkably optimistic outlook on the war’s trajectory.
His positive appraisal regarding negotiations, however, does not seem to be echoed among certain Russian officials.
Real advancements in talks have been sparse, with discussions primarily stalled around security guarantees for Kyiv, according to two individuals familiar with the Kremlin’s stance, who requested anonymity due to the discussions being private. Reaching a resolution would necessitate broader consensus extending beyond Moscow and Kyiv, involving the US and Europe, though their leaders lack alignment on the war’s conclusion.
This year’s discussions have resulted in both parties outlining positions that are unacceptable to one another, one of the individuals mentioned.
The two sides briefly paused hostilities for Orthodox Easter this weekend. Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a halt to combat operations starting at 4 p.m. on April 11, with a ceasefire lasting until April 12. Zelenskiy, who previously suggested an Easter truce, stated that Ukrainian forces would “mirror” the actions of Russia’s military.
Budanov emphasized that a key accomplishment of the peace talks was maintaining the engagement of the US administration as a mediator. He indicated that Ukraine anticipates high-level White House representatives at the negotiations, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, to visit Kyiv, perhaps next week, marking their first trip to Ukraine during the war.
Also Read: Pak Defence Minister Khawaja Asif calls Israel ‘evil, cancerous’; Netanyahu says remarks ‘outrageous’
While discussions regarding a trip to Kyiv have taken place, the White House has not yet set a date, as per a US official familiar with the situation, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
Ukraine is seeking clarity on the nature of US security guarantees to deter future Russian aggression as part of any peace agreement. This is likely to be a critical topic during the talks with the envoys.
Putin demands that Ukraine withdraw troops from the Donetsk region in the east, including areas that Russian forces have never held since conflict erupted in 2014. Conversely, Ukraine advocates for ceasing hostilities along the current front line, while the US has proposed creating a so-called free economic zone in the region.
Ukraine continues to heavily depend on military and financial assistance from its international allies, primarily the European Union, facing a risk of running out of funds in the coming two months unless essential financing is secured. It has yet to receive the initial disbursement of a promised €90 billion in EU aid due to a veto from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and hasn’t fulfilled all the criteria set by the International Monetary Fund to unlock further support.
Russia is experiencing growing economic pressures from an expanding budget deficit due to substantial military expenditures and support for businesses impacted by Western sanctions. The spike in global oil prices resulting from the US-Israeli conflict in Iran has provided Putin with a financial advantage that may alleviate some of the constraints associated with war funding.
This advantage could be short-lived since the conflict in Iran may conclude soon, according to Budanov. Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have emerged, including a two-week ceasefire agreed upon by the US and Tehran.
Budanov acknowledged that Russia has no shortage of troops and can mobilize a potential reserve of 23.5 million if necessary. That figure vastly exceeds Ukraine’s capacity as it deals with its own personnel shortages.
“That estimate dates back to my tenure as head of military intelligence and stems from a report prepared towards the end of 2025 on Russia’s mobilization potential for Putin,” Budanov recounted. “I reviewed it in its original form. No, there are no issues — and there won’t be any in the near future.”
Also Read: Doubts linger over Iran’s participation as Pakistan prepares for US-Iran-Israel peace talks
Nevertheless, Russia’s manpower edge isn’t yielding substantial battlefield advances as Ukraine employs innovative tactics in drone warfare to maintain a balance. Ukrainian forces have successfully executed several operations this year.
When asked what would happen if negotiations with Russia fail to produce a peace deal, Budanov was candid.
“Do you think there’s a magic solution?” he queried. “There are only two possibilities — war or peace. Not merely continuing the war, but persisting in negotiations. If they agree to that — because they may not.”
