Artificial intelligence is rapidly emerging as a crucial macroeconomic factor that influences global growth, employment, and productivity, as detailed in the World Economic Forum’s recent Chief Economists’ Outlook. However, the advantages are anticipated to be distributed unevenly across different regions.
According to the survey, two-thirds of the participating chief economists expect to see slight job losses due to AI in the next two years, indicating initial disruptions as automation progresses in multiple sectors. Yet, opinions differ significantly regarding the longer-term outlook. Over a decade, 57% predict net job losses, whereas almost one-third foresee job creation driven by AI as new roles are developed.
“The Chief Economists survey identifies three key trends for 2026: escalating investments in AI and its consequences for the global economy; rising debt levels nearing critical limits along with unprecedented changes in fiscal and monetary policies; and shifts in trade dynamics,” stated Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director at the World Economic Forum.
Uneven productivity gains
The survey underscores significant regional disparities in the expected timelines for AI-driven productivity improvements. The United States is projected to experience the quickest benefits, with median expectations of realizing gains within a year, closely followed by China. In contrast, many developing regions will likely face a considerably longer wait.
AI productivity gains: Median timeline
| Region | Expected timeline |
|---|---|
| United States | ~1 year |
| China | ~1.5 years |
| East Asia & Pacific | ~2 years |
| South Asia | ~2–3 years |
| Europe | ~3 years |
| Middle East & North Africa | ~3 years |
| Latin America | ~3–4 years |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 4–5+ years |
Growth impact concentrated in advanced economies
Economists generally believe that AI will significantly affect growth more in advanced economies compared to emerging markets. Almost all respondents anticipate that AI will greatly influence economic growth in the United States, while expectations are considerably more subdued for regions like Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Share expecting ‘significant’ AI impact on growth
| Region | % of respondents |
|---|---|
| United States | 97% |
| China | 83% |
| Europe | 42% |
| South Asia | 36% |
| Middle East & North Africa | 33% |
| Central Asia | 21% |
| Latin America & Caribbean | 10% |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 3% |
Jobs outlook: short-term pain, long-term uncertainty
While the immediate impact on employment indicates potential losses, the long-term scenario remains highly debated, highlighting uncertainty regarding the speed at which labor markets can adjust.
AI jobs impact: Next two years
| Impact | % |
|---|---|
| Significant job losses | 6% |
| Modest job losses | 66% |
| No change | 23% |
| Modest job gains | 6% |
AI jobs impact: Next 10 years
| Impact | % |
|---|---|
| Significant job losses | 26% |
| Modest job losses | 31% |
| No change | 11% |
| Modest job gains | 26% |
| Significant job gains | 6% |
These insights stem from 36 chief economists who provided feedback between November 19 and December 3, 2025, and will inform discussions at the World Economic Forum’s 56th Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters from January 19–23, 2026.
