Polls conducted by the Yomiuri and Mainichi newspapers, along with a survey from Kyodo News, indicated that Ishiba’s cabinet support varies from 22% to 31%, marking the lowest figures in each survey since he assumed national leadership last October.
High food prices, particularly rice costs, contributed to a 5.2 percentage point decrease in approval, bringing the Kyodo survey figure to 27.4%. This same poll revealed that 74.3% of participants were not optimistic about the outcomes of Japan’s tariff discussions with the US. The Yomiuri poll noted general dissatisfaction with the prime minister’s policies.
Despite Ishiba’s declining approval ratings, discussions about his removal within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party remain sparse ahead of the upper house election in July.
A poll from the Asahi newspaper provided a slight contrast to other surveys, showing Ishiba’s approval climbing to 33% from 30%. Nonetheless, the poll also highlighted ongoing voter discontent regarding Japan’s 10% sales tax. Approximately 68% expressed a desire to vote for candidates and parties advocating for tax reductions, with a third emphasizing lower taxes on food.
Despite the LDP’s significant loss in last year’s lower house election, Ishiba has maintained his position, largely by seeking support from minor opposition groups. Potential challengers within the LDP, especially from its right wing, have remained largely sidelined following that electoral defeat.
Analysts predict that a challenge to Ishiba from within the LDP is more plausible after the July elections.
“Ishiba’s right wing opponents have completely failed to coordinate an effort to remove him before the upper house elections, and as time goes on, it becomes increasingly difficult to envision the party pushing Ishiba out without severely harming its campaign,” stated Tobias Harris, founder of Japan Foresight, in a recent research note.
