In the firm’s recent Market Outlook Smartphone Shipment Forecast Report, growth is still anticipated in most other regions, spurred by ongoing demand in emerging markets and robust performance from major players like Apple and Huawei.
This adjustment comes in the context of renewed trade tensions that particularly impact major companies like Apple and Samsung
, both of which have significant exposure to the US market. “While tariffs have influenced our forecast changes, we are also considering weakened demand not only in North America but also throughout Europe and parts of Asia,” stated Liz Lee, Associate Director at Counterpoint.
Concerns over price increases due to cost transfers persist, with the tariff situation remaining highly dynamic. Counterpoint indicates that the current forecast presumes a relatively stable policy landscape through 2025, yet cautions that any escalation could disrupt pricing strategies, supply chains, and consumer sentiment.
Despite the overall subdued global outlook, Apple is projected to achieve positive shipment growth in 2025, driven by strong initial sales of the iPhone 16 series and ongoing trends of premiumisation in emerging markets like India, Southeast Asia, and the GCC.
On the other hand, Huawei might emerge as a surprising success story this year. “We are observing a reduction in sourcing bottlenecks for key components,” noted Associate Director Ethan Qi. This trend could enable the Chinese tech firm to increase its market share in mid-to-low-end segments domestically and set the stage for a more robust global initiative in the medium term.
“Is 2025 the breakout year for Huawei on the global stage? It may be too early to say,” Qi remarked, “but the strengthening of the supply chain will certainly assist the brand in establishing a firmer presence overseas.”
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