Maharashtra Municipal Elections: A Showdown Between Raj and Uddhav or a Coalition?

Maharashtra Municipal Elections: A Showdown Between Raj and Uddhav or a Coalition?
Although members and local leaders from Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) are increasingly displaying political camaraderie, the much-anticipated alliance between the Thackeray cousins remains in uncertainty, as neither leader has officially proposed an alliance to the other.

Both parties’ leaders are publicly discussing the alliance. However, an unexpected turn occurred on Thursday morning when Raj Thackeray met with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis in a private setting at a luxury hotel in Bandra. With the high-stakes municipal elections in Mumbai approaching, this meeting is viewed as a potential ‘game changer’ aimed at countering the Shiv Sena UBT led by Uddhav Thackeray.

For several months, the two factions have exhibited signs of reconciliation at the grassroots level. MNS and Shiv Sena (UBT) officials have been seen interacting amicably at various events, leading to speculation about a potential partnership that could alter Marathi politics in the city. Although Fadnavis and Raj Thackeray remained tight-lipped about the meeting, rumors suggest that Raj Thackeray’s MNS could receive backing from BJP and Mahayuti in the upcoming BMC elections, creating a political stir in the city.
Recently, Raj Thackeray hosted Deputy CM and Shiv Sena Chief Eknath Shinde at his home, and subsequently, Shinde’s close associate and industries minister Uday Samant also met with Raj Thackeray, fueling speculation about a possible alliance intended to isolate Uddhav. However, in a podcast interview with an online platform, Raj expressed his willingness to set aside differences with his cousin Uddhav Thackeray for the betterment of Maharashtra and the Marathi manoos (people).

This sparked discussions about a potential collaboration between Uddhav and Raj, and both leaders signaled positively, leading party workers to put up banners across various areas in Mumbai urging unity. Nonetheless, despite the apparent goodwill, there has been no formal communication or proposal exchange between Raj and Uddhav Thackeray. Insiders confirm that the two leaders have not met or instructed their teams to start discussions on an alliance—at least, not yet. Sources indicate that both sides are intentionally holding back, awaiting the State Election Commission to announce the dates for the municipal elections before taking definitive action.

The meeting between Raj Thackeray and CM Fadnavis is perceived as a strategic maneuver by Devendra Fadnavis. A recent poll by VoteVibe, a private firm, indicates that the BJP holds a significant advantage in the upcoming BMC elections; however, if the Thackeray brothers unite, they could pose a formidable challenge to the BJP by consolidating the Marathi vote in Mumbai.

Sources suggest that the closed-door meeting between Raj Thackeray and CM Fadnavis went beyond mere pleasantries and likely had political objectives. This raises questions about whether Raj Thackeray was offered something by the BJP to sideline Shiv Sena UBT. Raj Thackeray-led MNS did not participate in the Lok Sabha 2024 elections and supported PM Modi. Nevertheless, during the state assembly elections, Raj was not included in the Mahayuti alliance, leading him to contest independently against both factions of Shiv Sena without success. However, it now appears that with BJP’s support, Raj aims to re-establish his party in the BMC.

Following Thursday’s meeting between Raj Thackeray and Fadnavis, leaders from both Mahayuti and Mahavikas Aaghadi reacted. NCP(SP) leader Rohit Pawar remarked that Raj’s meetings with Eknath Shinde, his overtures towards Uddhav Thackeray, and now his meeting with Devendra Fadnavis could be tactical moves to enhance his bargaining power before the local body elections. Shiv Sena leader and minister Uday Samant referred to this meeting as merely a ‘coincidence’.

Subsequently, MNS leaders and close allies of Raj Thackeray, including Sandeep Deshpande and Ameya Khopkar, met with Minister Uday Samant, suggesting a potential cessation of discussions regarding the much-discussed alliance with Shiv Sena UBT. This also indicates that MNS might be initiating negotiations with Mahayuti. However, both leaders claimed that their discussions centered on a project related to Panvel town rather than any alliance talks.

Congress leader Vijay Wadettiwar stated, “BJP cannot afford for the Thackeray cousins to reconcile. The Marathi manoos desire this alliance, and if the family unites, Congress will offer support. Yet if Raj Thackeray is engaging in alliance talks with Mahayuti, his credibility could be compromised.”

Wadettiwar further suggested that while an MNS-BJP alliance may be improbable, an alliance between MNS and Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) could emerge primarily to keep Uddhav Thackeray at bay.

Meanwhile, the Maharashtra government has initiated the ward delimitation process, signaling that elections—particularly for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC)—may be announced soon. The state has mandated the restructuring of wards for A, B, and C category municipal corporations, including Pune, Nagpur, Thane, Nashik, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Navi Mumbai, Vasai-Virar, Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, and Kalyan-Dombivli. Mumbai will maintain its format of 227 single-member wards, while most other corporations will transition to a four-member ward model.

As the ward boundaries are redrawn and the election dates draw near, the pressure on Raj and Uddhav to either act decisively or abandon the notion of unity is mounting. Supporters from both sides argue that the time for token gestures has passed—it is time for political clarity. Will the cousins unite to present a consolidated Thackeray front? Or will they face another crucial BMC election independently? The countdown has commenced, but the decision remains in suspense.

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