The USS Abraham Lincoln and its accompanying guided missile destroyers enhance the US’s capacity to strike Iran, particularly as Gulf Arab nations have indicated their desire to remain uninvolved in any military action, despite hosting American forces.
Two Iranian-backed militias in the region have expressed their readiness to initiate new attacks, likely in response to US President Donald Trump’s threats of military action following the killing of peaceful protesters and the possibility of mass executions by Tehran amid the unrest.
Iran has persistently warned that it could escalate the conflict across the Middle East, even as its air defenses and military struggle to recover from Israel’s June attack. However, economic pressures may lead to renewed unrest as essential goods become increasingly inaccessible to its citizens, especially if Trump opts for military action.
A private security firm, Ambrey, issued a notice on Tuesday indicating that the US “has positioned sufficient military capability to conduct offensive operations against Iran while being able to defend itself and regional allies from reciprocal actions.” It further noted, “Supporting or retaliating for Iranian protesters through punitive strikes is considered an inadequate reason for prolonged military conflict.” However, it mentioned that alternative goals, such as undermining Iranian military capabilities, could raise the likelihood of limited US intervention. The latest figures were provided by the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, known for credibility during previous unrest in Iran. This group corroborates each reported death via a network of activists on the ground.
According to the agency, the 6,159 fatalities include at least 5,804 protesters, 214 affiliated government personnel, 92 children, and 49 civilians not involved in demonstrations. The crackdown has led to over 42,200 arrests, the agency noted.
The Associated Press has been unable to independently verify the death count due to authorities severing internet access and disrupting communications into the country.
The Iranian government, however, estimates the death toll to be much lower at 3,117, claiming that 2,427 were civilians and security forces, while labeling the remainder as “terrorists.” Historically, Iran’s theocratic regime has minimized or failed to disclose fatalities stemming from unrest.
This death toll surpasses that of any previous protests or unrest in decades, evoking memories of the tumult surrounding Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The protests in Iran commenced on December 28, triggered by the decline in the Iranian currency, the rial, and quickly expanded nationwide. They were met with a brutal crackdown by the Iranian theocracy, the scale of which is just beginning to emerge as the nation has endured over two weeks of internet blackout—the most extensive in its history.
Iran’s UN ambassador stated at a Security Council meeting on Monday that Trump’s repeated military threats against the country are “clear and unambiguous.” Amir Saeid Iravani also reiterated allegations that the US president incited violence by supporting “armed terrorist groups” connected to the United States and Israel, though he provided no evidence to substantiate his claims.
Iranian state media has sought to blame external forces for the protests, as the theocracy struggles to effectively address the nation’s failing economy, still constrained by international sanctions, particularly pertaining to its nuclear program.
On Tuesday, currency exchange shops in Tehran were offering a record-low exchange rate for the rial against the dollar. Traders declined to comment publicly, with several expressing frustration over the situation.
Iran has already imposed significant restrictions on its subsidized currency rates to curb corruption. Additionally, it has provided approximately $7 a month to most citizens to help offset rising costs. However, the populace has witnessed the rial plummet from a rate of 32,000 to $1 just a decade prior—substantially eroding the value of their savings.
Iran exerted its influence across the Middle East through the “Axis of Resistance,” a network of proxy militant organizations in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, among other locations. This was also viewed as a defensive buffer, aimed at shielding Iranian borders from conflict.
However, this influence has waned after Israel targeted Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and others during the Gaza conflict. Meanwhile, rebels in 2024 successfully dethroned Syria’s Bashar Assad after a protracted, bloody war, during which Iran supported his regime.
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The Houthis in Yemen, supported by Iran, have repeatedly warned of their potential to resume attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, releasing archival footage of a previous assault on Monday. Ahmad “Abu Hussein” al-Hamidawi, the leader of Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah militia, cautioned the “enemies” that the conflict with the Islamic Republic will not be trivial, warning that they would face the harshest forms of death, leaving nothing remaining of them in the region. The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, one of Iran’s closest allies, has not disclosed its response strategy in the event of a potential military strike.
“Over the last two months, several parties have asked me a direct question: If Israel and the United States go to war with Iran, will Hezbollah intervene or not?” Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Kassem stated in a video message.
He indicated that the group is preparing for “possible aggression and is determined to defend” against it. However, regarding its response, he remarked, “The specifics will be determined by the situation of battle and aligned with our interests.”
