Proponents of transitioning from the lev to the euro hail the change as one of the most significant achievements since the country’s shift from a Soviet-style economy to democracy and free markets in 1989. They are optimistic that this move will attract more investment and enhance Bulgaria’s alignment with wealthier Western Europe.
Yet, many citizens are apprehensive in a nation plagued by corruption and low trust in government institutions. A primary concern is that businesses may increase prices or exploit the transition to exacerbate inflation, particularly given that inflation has recently risen to 3.7 percent.
A March Eurobarometer poll revealed that 53 percent of 1,017 respondents opposed joining the eurozone, with 45 percent in favor.
Another Eurobarometer survey conducted between October 9 and November 3 indicated that approximately half of Bulgarians are against the single currency, while 42 percent support it. The margin of error for the March poll was about plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Supporters and skeptics of the euro
The government successfully achieved the euro adoption criteria by reducing inflation to 2.7 percent earlier this year, aligning with EU requirements and securing the approval of EU leaders.
However, overcoming that challenge was followed by a new wave of political turmoil. The government resigned after less than a year amid nationwide protests against corruption.
This development has left the country without an approved budget for next year and is obstructing plans for essential structural reforms and the allocation of EU support funds. A new election, the eighth in five years, is expected to take place in the spring.
Nevelin Petrov, 64, expressed his support for the euro, stating, “Bulgaria is a full member of the European Union, and its rightful place is alongside other developed and democratic European nations. I believe that adopting the euro will enhance our country’s long-term prosperity.”
Conversely, Darina Vitova, who runs a pedicure salon in Sofia, argued that the pace of change is too rapid, although she is supportive of the transition “in principle.” “The living standards and incomes in our country are far from those of the richest European nations, while prices are rising, making life harder for the average person,” she noted. However, she acknowledged that using the same currency while traveling to nearby Greece would be more convenient.
Bulgaria, home to 6.4 million people, is among the poorest members of the 27-country European Union, with an average monthly salary of 1,300 euros (USD 1,530).
Countries that join the EU must eventually adopt the euro, but the actual transition can take years, and some member states are in no rush. Poland, for instance, has achieved strong economic growth since joining the EU in 2004 without adopting the euro.
Pro-Russian factions stoke discontent
Those opposing euro adoption have amplified fears that the change could result in increased poverty and a loss of national identity. Social media has propagated misinformation, including unfounded claims that the euro could lead to bank account confiscation. Nationalist and pro-Russian groups are capitalizing on these anxieties.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, has pointed out that countries typically experience a slight, temporary price rise of 0.2-0.4 percent immediately after adopting the euro. Price increases may sometimes be more apparent than actual, as businesses may delay updating menus and price lists before the transition, resulting in postponed price hikes rather than those directly caused by the euro.
Anti-euro demonstrations organized by the pro-Russian Vazrazhdane party in May and September were smaller than the large protests that led to the government’s downfall. While the anti-euro protests primarily attracted older individuals concerned about economic issues, the mass protests represented a younger electorate frustrated with corruption and yearning for deeper integration with Europe.
Analyst views euro adoption as a strategic advantage
According to Dimitar Keranov, program coordinator for engaging Central Europe at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin, the anti-euro disinformation propagated by pro-Russian politicians and social media aims “to diminish support for the European Union, NATO, and Ukraine.”
Bulgaria’s European integration “is not beneficial for Moscow, so if it can polarize society and undermine support for the EU, that’s what it seeks to achieve,” he explained.
He added that adopting the euro would be another effective means to counter Russian influence: “The further Bulgaria progresses in its European integration, the more challenging it becomes for Russia to exert influence over the country.” Petar Ganev, an analyst at Bulgaria’s Institute for Market Economics, stated that the outgoing government’s resignation sends a message of uncertainty to foreign investors.
“Instead of leveraging euro adoption as a robust and positive signal to the international community—investors, creditors, and those interested in Bulgarian assets and economic activities—we risk conveying the opposite message,” Ganev remarked in an interview with the Associated Press.
Ganev believes that eurozone membership should be seen as an opportunity, an additional mechanism for addressing corruption and reinforcing the rule of law, although it alone cannot mitigate Bulgaria’s ongoing cycle of elections, political fragmentation, and instability.
Economic implications are expected to be minimal
Local economists anticipate that joining the euro will not lead to significant changes in Bulgaria’s economy, largely because the lev has been legally pegged to the euro since 1999 at a fixed rate of 1 lev to 51 euro cents.
Throughout January, both the lev and the euro will be accepted for cash payments, but individuals will receive only euros in change.
