Oil prices continue to remain low due to sluggish demand and abundant supply, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in areas like the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as stated by Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group.
In an interview with CNBC TV18, he mentioned that oil prices are hovering around $50 and emphasized that global conflicts have not altered the fundamental dynamics of the oil market.
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Bremmer indicated that the US’s influence over Venezuelan oil reserves is unlikely to lead to immediate conflicts or significantly impact oil supplies, given the market’s robust availability. He pointed out that while the US continues to invest in oil and gas, China is channeling investments into batteries, nuclear power, renewables, and essential minerals, labeling oil, gas, and coal as “20th-century energies.” He noted that China aims to evolve into an “electro state” rather than a petrostate.
Regarding trade policy, Bremmer mentioned that although he is not a legal expert, he anticipates that the US Supreme Court will limit the application of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which he believes was not meant to apply to over 90 countries for political reasons. He suggested that while the court may not entirely overturn existing measures, it is also unlikely to grant President Donald Trump indiscriminate approval.
When asked about the increasing tensions related to oil and tariffs in 2026, Bremmer reiterated that oil prices stay low because supply outstrips demand. He noted that Trump is interested in collaboration with China and is preparing for discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Bremmer explained that the enforcement of what he referred to as the “Dondroe Doctrine” is already influencing US policy in Latin America, especially in Venezuela, where the US is advocating for compliance regarding oil, drugs, migration, and governance. He mentioned that this strategy could also be relevant for Nicaragua, Cuba, and Greenland.
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Concerning China’s economy, Bremmer projected that the country’s deflationary pressures are anticipated to intensify in 2026, with growth fueled by exports of low-cost manufactured goods that generate significant trade surpluses, thereby placing economic strain on other nations.
As for India, Bremmer stated that the country is positioned relatively strongly in a G-zero world, highlighting stable relations with the US, leadership in the Global South, improving relations with China, and consistent policy.
