When was the survey conducted?
The Kantharaju Committee carried out the caste census under the Socio-Economic and Education Survey during Siddaramaiah’s initial term as chief minister. This survey spanned from April 11, 2015, to May 30, 2015. During this timeframe, around 1.36 lakh teachers conducted interviews with approximately 1.01 crore individuals and gathered data concerning nearly 6 crore people, excluding about 37 lakh. CM Siddaramaiah himself noted in a post on X that this survey’s accuracy stands at 95%.
What does the alleged leaked survey say?
The survey revealed that Muslims have emerged as the largest community in the state, with a population of 76 lakhs, comprising 12.83% of the total population.
Interestingly, traditionally influential castes like Vokkaligas and Lingayats exhibited considerably lower population shares.
Which community stands where?
According to the survey,
• Muslims, with a population of 76,76,247, rank first.
• Lingayats (including all sub-castes and Veerashaiva Lingayats) are the second-largest group with 66,35,233 constituents.
• Vokkaligas (including all sub-castes) number 61,58,352 in total.
• Scheduled Castes (SCs) aggregated yield nearly 1.09 crore, making them the largest demographic block overall.
Caste and sub-caste-wise population
In examining the caste and sub-caste breakdown, Vokkaligas from the Old Mysore region stand second with 50,65,642 (8.47%), followed by,
• Kurubas: 44,11,758 (7.38%)
• SC (Left): 35,99,895 (6.02%)
• SC (Right): 34,98,188 (5.85%)
• ST Valmiki-Nayaka: 30,31,656 (5.07%)
• A notable caste like Lingayats has fallen to seventh place with just 30,14,696 (5.04%) individuals, followed by:
• SC (Others): 19,82,011 (3.31%)
• Veerashaiva Lingayats: 17,88,279 (2.99%)
Other Lingayat sub-communities were voluntarily recognised separately
• Panchamasali Lingayat: 10,71,302 (1.79%)
• Saadar Lingayat: 2,55,456 (0.43%)
• Nonaba Lingayat: 1,61,168 (0.27%)
• Jangama Lingayat: 94,282 (0.16%)
• Lalagonda Lingayat: 29,280 (0.05%)
• Beda Jangama Lingayat: 24,127 (0.04%)
• Ganiga Lingayat: 23,483 (0.04%)
• Kuruhinashetty Lingayat: 8,325 (0.01%)
Vokkaliga sub-castes
• Kunchitiga Vokkaliga: 73,977 (0.12%)
• Hallikar Vokkaliga: 30,265 (0.05%)
• Reddy Vokkaliga: 24,059 (0.04%)
• Dasa Vokkaliga: 17,961 (0.03%)
• Marasu Vokkaliga: 5,794 (0.01%)
SC sub-castes were listed separately
• SC (Lambani): 13,96,909 (2.34%)
• SC (Bhovi): 12,12,530 (2.03%)
• ST (Others): 7,92,808 (1.33%)
Out of the 167 castes in the state, Brahmins have fallen to the 10th position with a population of 15,64,741 (2.61%).
Other prominent communities include:
• Maratha: 16,15,667 (2.70%)
• Uppara: 8,15,648 (1.33%)
• Reddy: 7,11,377 (1.19%)
• Ganiga: 7,02,379 (1.17%)
• Madivala: 6,58,887 (1.10%)
• OBC(Others): 17,68,688 (2.96%)
• Devanga: 6,30,691 (1.05%)
• Tigala: 3,28,902 (0.55%)
• Besta: 12,70,044 (2.12%)
• Vishwakarma: 10,88,385 (1.82%)
• Golla: 9,76,641 (1.63%)
• Kshatriyas: 4,12,690 (0.68%)
• Gowdas: 4,12,690 (0.68%)
• Bunts: 3,25,718 (0.54%)
• Kumbara: 4,43,492 (0.74%)
• Arya Vaishya: 4,66,769 (0.78%)
Other minorities
• Christians: 8,61,416 (1.44%)
• Jains: 4,19,375 (0.70%)
The Kantharaju Committee assesses the state population to be approximately 6.5 crore, compared to the 6.11 crore reported in the 2011 Census.
Recommendations of the committee
The committee, led by former Congress MP Jayaprakash Hegde, has proposed several key recommendations based on the caste and community data, including:
• Adjust reservations to reflect population sizes
• Increase Muslim reservations from 4% to 8%
• Raise Category 3(A) allocations from 4% to 7%
• Increase 3(B) allocations to 8% from the current 5%
• Raise Category 1 reservations from 4% to 6%
• Expand 2(A) reservations from 15% to 22%
If implemented, these recommendations would push the total reservation level—factoring in SC and ST—beyond the 50% cap, surpassing the 80% threshold with an additional 10% for EWS.
However, there remains skepticism about the widespread acceptance of the survey report. Many in Karnataka have taken to social media to express their grievances, stating that surveyors did not visit their homes. Notably, senior Congress leader Shamanur Shivashankarappa echoed this, asserting that no one came to his house for the survey. Another Congress MLA, Ravi Ganiga, made similar claims.
Not just Lingayats, but Vokkaligas, Brahmins, SCs, Reddys, and Yadavs are also questioning the honesty and intent behind the survey.
Opportunity for CM Siddaramaiah
Ahinda consolidation—the unification of minorities, backward classes, and Dalits—is a significant asset for CM Siddaramaiah. His support from the Ahinda coalition has enabled him to exit the JD(S) led by Deve Gowda and establish his position as the key leader of Alpasankhyata (minorities), Hindulida (backward classes), and Dalits.
Moreover, Siddaramaiah is uniquely positioned to guide the Karnataka Congress to win at least 100 seats without relying on upper castes like Lingayats, Brahmins, or Vokkaligas. Ideally, by securing full support from Ahinda voters, he could achieve a majority within the state assembly.
The survey data supports this, indicating that Muslims (76,76,247), Scheduled Castes (1,09,29,347), Scheduled Tribes (42,81,289), CM Siddaramaiah’s own caste Kurubas (44,11,758), and Christians (8,61,416) together represent nearly 46% of the state’s populace. Inclusion of other minor and backward castes could easily elevate this figure above 50%.
Challenges for CM Siddaramaiah
While the caste survey is intended to aid Siddaramaiah in uniting Ahinda votes, the rushed manner in which it has been executed may hinder Congress’s prospects in the long run.
The state government faces pressure due to escalating prices, law and order challenges, inadequate development, severe corruption allegations, and more. Many Lingayat and Vokkaliga MLAs are encountering unrest from their core supporters. Lingayat seers have even demanded the resignation of over 30 Congress MLAs who joined the protests.
Rambhapuri Shri of the Veerashaiva Lingayat Panchapeetha has publicly rejected the survey, stating that the Mutt will conduct its own independent survey of Lingayats. Similarly, the Shreeshaila Jagadguru has dismissed the survey findings. State Industry Minister MB Patil has asserted that the actual Lingayat population exceeds one crore.
Senior Congress leader and six-time MLA Shamanur Shivashankarappa has cautioned the state government, stating, “We Lingayats and Vokkaligas will not permit this government to operate.”
The State Vokkaliga Sangha shares these sentiments, with State President Kenchappa Gowda rejecting the survey report and joining in solidarity with Lingayats to contest it.
Brahmins, STs, Yadavs, and Reddys have also voiced similar concerns, leading to fears that this may trigger a reverse consolidation among communities.
