Available positions rose to 7.39 million from a revised 7.20 million in March, according to data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics published on Tuesday (June 3). The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists anticipated 7.10 million openings.
The increase in openings was primarily driven by private-sector fields such as professional and business services, along with health care and social assistance.
In contrast, openings in manufacturing and the leisure and hospitality sectors decreased, as did listings in state and local education, contributing to an overall decline in government openings. However, federal government vacancies increased.
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The data can be quite volatile, occasionally swinging by as much as 500,000 vacancies month-to-month. Economists find it useful to examine the report from an overall trend perspective, which indicates that openings have generally stabilized between 7 million and 8 million over the past year.
“Considering how much the JOLTS series fluctuates from month to month, I will only get excited if there are significant movements in the same direction for two consecutive months and/or the levels reach new highs,” stated Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander US Capital Markets, in a note. “None of the key indicators (job openings, quits, and layoffs) met those criteria in April.”
The increase in job openings, combined with steady hiring and low unemployment, supports the Federal Reserve’s claim that the labor market is performing well. However, it is taking longer for those without jobs to secure new positions, and economists anticipate a more noticeable weakening in the labor market in the months ahead due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Thus far, this trend has not yet been reflected in the data, lending support to the Fed’s decision to maintain steady interest rates for the time being. Policymakers and forecasters will be closely monitoring any signs of a softening job market in the government’s May jobs report, expected on Friday, which is predicted to show a slower pace of job growth and a steady unemployment rate.
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What Bloomberg Economics Says…
“While headline job openings exceeded expectations, the details of April’s JOLTS report reveal signs of labor-market weakness. Vacancies decreased in discretionary services industries closely linked to travel and in manufacturing.
Layoffs increased, and the quit rate fell as employees faced challenges in securing new jobs. Although policymakers describe the labor market as “solid,” there are crucial indicators of slack that we predict will motivate policymakers to maintain a cutting bias,” commented Stuart Paul, economist.
Hiring reached its highest level in nearly a year, as indicated by the JOLTS report. However, the number of layoffs rose to the highest level since October, and fewer employees voluntarily left their positions, suggesting diminished confidence in their ability to find new work.
The ratio of vacancies per unemployed worker, a figure closely monitored by Fed officials as a measure of labor demand versus supply, remained at 1.0, consistent with pre-pandemic levels. At its peak in 2022, this ratio was 2 to 1.
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Some economists have raised concerns about the reliability of the JOLTS data due to the low response rate of the survey and significant revisions. A similar index from job-posting site Indeed, reported daily, indicated that openings declined in April.
